Rookie of the Year isn’t automatically awarded to the player with the highest WAR you’ve got to capture the attention of 30 national writers, which is easier to do when you’re playing for a team like the Astros. The best thing Peña has going for him is his uniform. My money is (figuratively) on Julio (and literally too, if I were ever to make a Sports Bet.). We’ve seen the kind of star-stuff Julio is made of and how he responds to big moments. The trick will be for Julio to continue on this upward trajectory without falling into a rookie slump, while Peña continues to fall off some from his torrid early-season pace. In discussing the AL ROY, current trajectories should be considered, aside from just the season numbers. Loud noises alone don’t produce good results, of course, but if you look at how the two have been producing over the past month, you can see how Julio’s consistent loud contact is helping him pull away in this race: Peña ranks below league-average in hard-hit percentage and middling for exit velocity Julio is in the 90th percentile and better. Julio consistently hits the ball harder and louder than Peña, something he’s been doing his whole career, which is part of the reason he entered into this season, along with Witt Jr. But if you dig down you see why Julio, winner of May’s AL Rookie of the Month award for MLB, has captured more attention: he makes the bass drop (in our hearts). In many ways, the difference between the two is marginal: Julio is in the 97th percentile for Outs Above Average Peña, 100. While Peña remains the favorite, Julio currently has better odds some places than Peña for ROY, a fact that incenses Astros fans because Peña has some better numbers due to Julio’s slow start, although marginally so: the big difference is Peña has about fifty points more of slugging, and strikes out a tidier 23% of the time compared to Julio’s 30%.
Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports Tier 1: The Frontrunners Julio Rodríguez There are three clear tiers: a two-man race at the top between Julio and the Astros’ Jeremy Peña a trio of solid players who could very plausibly win if they pour it on in the second half and a set of dark horses that can’t be counted out. So we sat down to assess the state of the field in the American League. But Rookie of the Year is a relative award. Can anyone take their eyes off Julio Rodríguez when the Mariners are playing? He’s been simply electric with play that demands recognition.
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